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Japan Decides New Growth Strategy for Period through FY 2020 [ 2010.08.26 ]

[NewsJapan.net] The government anticipates an average annual economic growth rate of more than 2% in real terms and 3% nominal during the coming 11 years through fiscal 2020. These figures were unveiled in a new growth strategy decided at a cabinet meeting on June 18 in a bid to create the “strong economy” envisioned by Prime Minister Naoto Kan in his agenda for national rehabilitation. The strategy sets out, among other things, a target to create a total of about five million jobs in four key sectors—the environment, health, tourism, and Asia. The government also declared that it intended to lift the nation out of deflation as early as fiscal 2011.

Seven strategic sectors to drive the anticipated growth are identified in the program: (1) the environment and energy, (2) health, (3) Asia, (4) tourism and local revitalization, (5) science, technology, and information and communications, (6) employment and human resources, and (7) finance. Demand worth 123 trillion yen will be generated from the first four sectors (1–4), which will also create 4.99 million jobs.

The numerical targets cited in the seven categories include the creation of a 50 trillion yen plus market and 1.4 million jobs related to the environment; a reduction of over 1.3 billion tons in global warming gas emissions in the world (the equivalent of Japan’s own total emissions); the creation of approximately 50 trillion yen in new markets and 2.84 million jobs from the fostering of industries related to medical, nursing, and health services; the realization of 19.7 trillion yen in exports of infrastructure to Asian and other countries under the cooperation of the public and private sectors; and the attraction of 30 million foreign visitors to Japan annually.

Of about 330 specific measures listed, 21 are designated as “national strategic projects” that are expected to make distinctive contributions to economic growth and are to be given priority. These include “environmental cities of the future,” “overseas development of infrastructure,” “the unification of kindergartens and daycare centers,” and “the creation of a ‘comprehensive exchange’ where the trading of securities, financial instruments, and commodities will be combined.”

Regarding the policy to enhance the nation’s level of technology and competitiveness, the strategy envisages the creation of “leading graduate schools” where the academic disciplines in which Japan excels will be concentrated and experts will be produced who will lead the world in new growth areas. More than 100 research organizations and educational centers ranking within the top 50 in the world in their specific areas will be created.

With regard to the lowering of the corporate tax rate, which is being strongly requested by business circles, the growth strategy unequivocally states that the effective corporate tax rate will be lowered to “the level of major countries.” Although the timing of the lowering is yet to be made clear, a reduction to 25% from the currently prevailing rate of 40% or so will be considered, according to a report in The Nikkei on June 18 (evening edition).

Eliminating persistent deflation is recognized as another priority. The government declares in the growth strategy that it will attempt to put the consumer price rise in positive territory within fiscal 2011 with a view to ending deflation by around fiscal 2011–12. After this is realized, a moderate and constant rise of 1% or so in the gross domestic product deflator, which is an overall indicator of price trends, will be set as a target to be pursued. The strategy also stipulates that the jobless rate should be lowered to the 3% range as early as possible.

The media pointed out some of the conditions required for the successful implementation of the growth strategy, including (1) ensuring funding resources, (2) overcoming resistance to reform and deregulation by vested interests, and (3) eliminating bureaucratic reluctance to coordinate beyond ministerial boundaries.

Major Newspaper Editorials

Most editorial commentaries in the major newspapers emphasized the importance of implementation of the program and the government’s determination to do so.

This mood was illustrated by the headline of the Yomiuri Shimbun editorial on June 21---“Growth strategy needs more substance.” It argued, “An overall problem is that the strategy lacked precise figures for the fiscal spending and costs that will be needed to carry out the measures, although it projected concrete figures---such as the demand that will be created---for the fruit of the measures. Unless details are spelled out about how to fund these projects at a time when the state finances are in dire straits, none of the plans will get off the ground. A close eye will need to be kept on whether each measure has an effect commensurate with its cost. Another matter of concern is the lack of clarity on how the measures will be carried out.”

The Sankei Shimbun carried an editorial on June 19 titled “Power to implement is all important.” Citing corporate revitalization as crucial for putting Japan’s economy on the growth track again, it questioned “to what extent this growth strategy will lead to the creation of demand, since it does not include sufficient assistance for corporations.”

The Nikkei editorial on June 19, titled “Meaningful only with steady implementation,” stated, “Even if a sustained 3%-plus growth is a hard target, we call for steady implementation of the policies written in it.” The Nikkei added positively, “The strategic plan adopts a pragmatic course with several policies that stress productivity.”

Meanwhile, in an editorial on June 19 headlined “Human resources buildup should be top priority,” the Mainichi Shimbun commented, “In the context of enhancing the vitality of the Japanese economy, human resources buildup should be valued most of all. As long as people don’t change, the economy won’t change.”

The Asahi Shimbun in its June 19 editorial praised the government’s “ambitious target to raise the average annual nominal growth rate to 3% by fiscal 2020.” It went on, “Given that Japan’s nominal growth rate has been in negative territory over the past ten years, the growth target is extremely ambitious. We commend Kan for demonstrating political will and leadership in rising to such a formidable challenge. Economic growth, above all, is essential for realizing the ‘strong economy, strong public finances, and strong social security’ that Kan envisions.”

(Copyright 2010 Foreign Press Center, Japan)

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