Update : 2017년 09월 21일


- THE ILLUSION OF TH...
- 评价美中元首Ê...
- THE LIBERATING POW...
- Startup Visa for F...
- Spain in front of ...
- Akita’s High Quali...
- デビッド・リュ、LAで...
- How poor posture c...
- Greece on a knife ...
- 瀋陽9.18歴史博物館

일본어로 수학 가르치는 일원 상록 학습관



hold on Korea Society


칼럼Zone

국제 금융 浦沙短筆
풍경, 2017년 9월
히로미의 세상살이
瀋陽9.18歴史博...
速 종합 격투기 통신
UFC 챔피언 생피에르, 최고...
게일 킴 핫라인
Overview of and ...
Here's What Happened
米中首脳Ê...
재일교포 그리고 일본
재일교포 이야기
Bold English
Go by the book
SOCCER INVESTOR
공격수 아데바요르, 레알 완전...
Asia Pacific Yard
"Night Schools" ...
일본인에게 영어를
일본 산의 매력
어느 바텐더의 날들
十夜「ある冬の夜の出੖...
한지붕 두나라
일본을 떠날 때까지
평범녀의 빌린 인생
무라카미 류
민주주의 상징 김대중
70년 대선, 박정희와의 한판...
각양각색 동북아 소식
일본항공, 아메리칸 에어라인과...
Movie Craze
(Old) Sex and th...
The 힐링여행 SOUM숨
머리가 지끈거리면서 아플 때
자전거 일본 여행기
무소의 뿔처럼 혼자서 가라!

세계가 보는 일본




flag counters

외무성 주도 '재팬하우스', ...
개인 금융 자산액 경기회복에 ...
일본 체류 외국인, 2년 연속...
도시바, 원자력 사업에서의 손...
중국 항공모함의 행위는 중국 ...
일본 체류 외국인에게도 재해 ...
매달 마지막 주 금요일은 3시...
외국인의 일본 체류자격, '개...
일본정책투자은행, 영국 바이오...
일본의 베트남으로의 첫 원전 ...


The 힐링여행 SOUM숨 NJSave up to 70% on your next stay with Hotelclub.com
Emerging crisis in Europe poses risk to exports [ 2010.03.03 ]

[NewsJapan.org] The financial crisis in Southern European countries has recently emerged as a new risk factor for the world economy. The financial crisis in Europe itself is not anything new since there has long been concern over the issue. After 2009, the budget balance of European countries worsened rapidly due to factors such as the drop in tax revenues and the expansion of public expenditure aimed at addressing the financial crisis and recession. In particular, the five Southern European countries under the degrading acronym, 'PIIGS' (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain), have been placed on a watch list with significantly high budget deficits, government debt, and unemployment rate.

Accordingly, in December, Greece's credit rating was lowered from A- to BBB+, and Spain's credit outlook turned negative. The premium of CDS (Credit Default Swap) also rose rapidly, setting all-time high records daily in this February.

Greece was the hardest hit country among the PIIGS. The EU Commission of the European Communities raised questions over the effectiveness of the deficit reduction plan submitted by Greece since the credibility of statistics was undermined when the Greek government revised upward its estimate of budget deficits to a large extent. As a result, the market's concern on the national bankruptcy crisis in Greece and possible spillover effects to other PIIGS countries spread rapidly, which substantially increased the volatility of the global financial market. Finally, the EU stepped in to address the crisis, agreeing in principle to support Greece in the Eurozone summit held on Feb. 11 and the financial ministers' meeting from Feb. 15 to 16.

Three reasons can be cited for the recent financial crisis in Southern Europe. The first and biggest reason is the great expansion of public spending for overcoming the economic recession. Southern Europe, whose economic conditions fall far behind when compared to the rest of Europe, was particularly hard hit in its key sectors such as the shipping and tourism industry due to the global recession. This lead to the inevitable accumulation of budget deficits and increase in government debt. As for Greece, its share of budget deficit in GDP climbed steeply from 3.7% in 2007 to 7.7& in 2008, and to 12.7% in 2009.

Secondly, the huge economic stimulus packages were not effective in reducing the deficits in Southern Europe due to the slow rate of recovery. According to the EU Commission of the European Communities, the EU's economy recorded -4.1% growth, even lower than the -2.5% growth of the US. The PIIGS countries posted minus growth in 2009, and their growth in 2010 is expected to remain low, falling under the EU's projection of 0.7%. Moreover, these countries are facing twin deficits, a combination of huge budget deficits and the expansion of current account deficits. This means that there are no other options than reducing public spending or attracting foreign capital to finance budget deficits.

Lastly, the restriction of having to use the Eurozone's single exchange and interest rate policy also contributed to the crisis. For example, Greece and Portugal can improve the balance of current accounts and attract foreign capital by depreciating their currency reflecting the worsened economy and financial crisis. However, the single currency euro remained strong, placing further burden on the two economies. This is in contrast to Korea's fast recovery from the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997 and the recent global crisis, which was based on the weak won that enabled the expansion of exports and surplus of current accounts.

It is projected that the national bankruptcy crisis of Greece will be resolved by its own intensive efforts and the external support from the EU, but the process will not be an easy one, since although agreement for the support was made in principle in the EU summit and financial ministers' meeting, detailed plans are yet to be drawn up. Whereas the EU is first calling for a major budget reduction plan by Greece, the Greek government is requesting tangible support from the EU in advance. Also, due to the significant difference in stance among the EU member countries such as the opposition from Germany and Northern Europe based on concerns over increased burden on their economies, a considerable amount of time will be needed to set up a specific relief program. Therefore, it is predicted that support from the EU will take concrete shape in March after the evaluation on the Greek budget deficit reduction plan is completed.

Although urgent issues were taken care of, a recurrence of the financial crisis is still possible due to two reasons: 1. The influence of the crisis is not limited to Southern Europe including Greece. 2. The crisis cannot be resolved in the short term. The budget deficit in the GDP of the EU as a whole is also on the rise, recording 6.9% in 2009, and 7.5% in 2010, and the US and Japan are no exceptions. Europe and other advanced countries are now facing a dilemma because austerity measures are required in order to secure fiscal health, but at the same time, economic stimulus through the expansion of public expenditure is also crucial in achieving a fast recovery. Therefore, Europe's financial crisis is projected to remain as a potential anxiety factor amid continued uncertainty in the near future.

Korea is not likely to receive direct influence from the recent financial crisis in Southern Europe since its share of exports to the PIIGS countries only recorded a mere 2.37% in 2009. Moreover, although Greece takes up the largest proportion among the five countries, exports for this year will not be significantly influenced since vessel exports, which comprise the majority of Korean exports to Greece, will still be carried out as long as the vessels are under construction.

Korean exporters should heed the increase of volatility in the exchange rate between the won and the dollar stemming from the growing uncertainty in the global financial market. This, however, can also bring a positive effect of preventing a free fall of the dollar-won exchange rate by stopping the global trend of the weak dollar. In other words, such uncertainty can raise the exchange rate to slow down the speed of won's appreciation, which is a potential impediment to the recovery of Korean exports.

However, Korean exports may be negatively impacted if the overall economy of the EU takes a downturn by a prolonged financial crisis. In fact, the exports to the EU in 2009 accounted for 12.8% of Korea's total exports, ranking second after China, which accounted for 23.9%. Furthermore, the recovery of the global economy is predicted to take a blow if the effect of the economic stimulus by the EU member countries is weakened due to the reduction of public spending aimed at securing fiscal health. The PIIGS countries already face a considerable reduction of government budget in order to cut down on excessive budget deficits. Also, the possibility of a crisis in one member country spreading to the whole EU still remains since the EU's major areas of trade are concentrated within the region.

In conclusion, the European financial crisis that started in Greece is an ongoing process. It is a potential threat that can seriously damage the vulnerable world economy which is still in recovery. Under the strong international collaboration established after the global financial crisis, it is true that, for any country, the possibility of an extreme case such as national bankruptcy is not high. However, we should still remain cautious because as we saw in Lehman's case, the global financial market can instantly fall into a crisis solely by a panic-triggered chain reaction.

In this regard, even though the short-term effect of the European financial crisis is limited, its long-term effect should be recognized as a potential risk in the sense that the crisis increases the uncertainty in the financial market and impedes the recovery of the global economy. Against this backdrop, the Korean government and exporters should remain vigilant on Europe's situation when taking into account Korea's high external dependency and sensitivity to external shocks.

LEE Seung Jun
Senior Researcher
Institute for International Trade, KITA

대한민국 유일의 일본 뉴스 전문 매체- 뉴스재팬 (NewsJapan.co.kr)


< Copyrights (C) 뉴스재팬 / www.newsjapan.co.kr 무단전재 및 재배포 금지 >
Facebook Share / 페이스북 공유
To E-mail / 기사 메일송신 | To Print Out / 기사 출력


  • Unexpectedly Surprisingly The Most Popular News >>   의외로 가장 많이 읽혀진 뉴스
“Ask a Pediatrician” baby workshop
木育(mokuiku) Nature it is
Tokyo Sky Tree opens
To deal with adversity, Japanese companies...
"Night Schools" in the Affected Area Start...
Save pets in Fukushima
All Nuke Reactors Shut Down
PiFanでは毎日、星が輝く
特別展-SFアニメーションの伝説:宇宙&#...
Dance course becomes compulsory curriculum...
Enjoy Exciting PiFan with Ha Seon Park, th...
전설의 프로레슬러, 스팅(Sting) 단독 인터뷰
최경량 월드챔프, 레이 미스테리오 단독 인터뷰
NO.1 아나운서 후나키, 타지리 일본행 만족
WWE 차세대 기대주, 바비 레슐리 단독 인터뷰
프로레슬링 디바, 크리스탈 단독 인터뷰
일본 대학생, '아이팟으로 출첵!'
미 코니스, 10GB 초소형 하드디스크 개발
후속탐사기 개발착수, 생명의 기원 규명 다가서
토미오카 공장의 세계문화유산 등재, 내수 활성화로
自転車の道路交通法
한국인은 사람, 일본인은 도깨비... 빨간 도깨비
글쓴이
비밀번호 * 삭제시 필요합니다.(4~6자이내)
제목
내용
타인의 명예를 훼손하거나 개인정보를 유출하는 등 법률에 위반되는 글은 삼가하여 주시기 바랍니다. 게시물에 대한 민형사상의 법적인 책임은 게시자에게 있으며 운영자에 의해 삭제되거나 관련 법률에 따라 처벌 받을 수 있습니다.
글쓰기전 최종체크
주간 베스트 뉴스











exclusive image

뉴스재팬 소개 / About Us  |   광고 제휴 / Advertisements  |   만드는 사람들 / Staffs  |   By Other Presses                                                                              시작페이지로  |   즐겨찾기로

 
NPO 法人 |   Incorporated Non Profit Org. Answer Asia / 비영리기구 앤서아시아 (아시아의 평화와 우호를 생각하는 모임)
Main Spot |   アンサ一アジア ヘッドオフィス is located at Takajukacho Hirakata Osaka Japan
K Spot |   Alternative School is at #126 F1 Sangroksu Apt Mall Ilwonbondong Gangnamgu Seoul Korea
T Spot |   PR Place is at Soi Vuthiphan Rachaprarop Rd. Rajathevee Bangkok Thailand
Contact |   E-mail : newsjapanet@gmail.com | Need a phone number? Email first | Very active from the year of 2005
          Copyright ⓒ 2004 ~ 2017 NewsJapan.net. All rights reserved. Contact newsjapanet@gmail.com for more information. admin